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New projections point to substantial rise

- taken from a Joseph Rowntree Foundation Study (see: www.jrf.org.uk)

Main points:

• Britain can expect a substantial - possibly four-fold - increase in spending on long-term care for older people by the middle of the century as the number of people living into their late 80s and beyond increases and real care costs rise, according to new projections based on the latest official population projections.
  
  
• The projections, prepared for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, suggest that care spending would need to rise by 315 per cent in real terms between 2000 and 2051 to meet demographic pressures and rising costs, assuming that dependency rates, patterns of care and current funding arrangements remain unchanged.
  
  
• The Government Actuary’s Department’s latest population projections have projected higher growth than previously anticipated in the number of older people. The number of people over 65 in the UK is expected to rise by 81 per cent over the next five decades from 9.3 million to 16.8 million. But growth in the population over 85 - the age group most likely to need nursing, residential or home care - is now expected to rise by 255 per cent from 1.1 million in 2000 to 4 million in 2051.
  
  
• Using these projections, researchers at the London School of Economics and University of Leicester project that total UK spending on long-term care would rise from around £12.9 billion in 2000 to around £53.9 billion by 2051. This would see the proportion of national income (GDP) being spent on care for older people increase from 1.4 per cent to around 1.8 per cent.
  
  
• In order to keep pace with demographic change, the number of places taken in residential care homes, nursing homes and hospitals would have to rise by around 150 per cent, from around 450,000 to 1,130,000, and the time spent by home care services caring for older people in their own homes would increase around 140 per cent, from around 2 million to more than 4.8 million hours per week.
  
  
• Lord Best, Director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said:
  
  
• 'It is seven years since the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s Inquiry into Paying for Long-term Care highlighted the implications for care services as life expectancy increases and those who were born during the post-war 'baby-boom' reach old age.'
  
  
• 'These new projections show that the major problems our inquiry anticipated as demand for nursing, residential and home care increases have intensified. The potential for a four-fold increase in spending identified by this report should make politicians and policy makers stop and think carefully. We all need to consider what changes could be implemented now if we are to ensure that people now in their 30s, 40s and 50s can be sure of receiving a high standard of care when they need it in old age. It is time to re-open the debate.'

Further details of the report from the Joseph Rowntree web site (inluding a link to full pdf version for download).