Assistant
editor of the Sunday Independent and parliamentary correspondent
of the Independent Newspaper Company.
It has been almost five years now since the
South African miracle captivated the world. The end
of three hundred years of colonialism and apartheid,
the end of racial conflict, the dawn of democracy were
compelling notions not only to a world still wracked
with violence and division but to a nation tired of
repression, inter-racial hostility and international
isolation. But few would have guessed, even once civil
war had been averted, the depth of social crises, the
economic stagnation and the immense domestic and global
challenges to policy-makers in the aftermath of the
miracle. It is not often that sports men or women contrive
to provide profound insights into the human condition.
More usually, cliches such as "the best side won,"
"a game is made up of two halves" or "I
couldn't have done it without my team-mates" are
the order of the day. But earlier this week, the manager
of the Montreal Expos baseball team in America said
the following: "Sometimes, something has to almost
die ... for the miracle to take place."
What was true for baseball this year, was true
also for South Africa. As a nation we were close to
death by 1994. The body politic was in tatters, the
economy was ailing and uncompetitive, the pain of the
past festered and was unaddressed, the legacy of apartheid
- the suspicion, the poverty, the greed, the hatred,
the inequity, the anger, the corruption - remained unresolved.
But the miracle spurred us on, made us believe that
if we could survive apartheid, we could achieve anything.
We were proud of our indomitable spirit, of our powers
of forgiveness, of our ability to sit side by side and
reach consensus, of our new president, Nelson Mandela.
Buoyed by the spirit of renaissance and hope, South
Africa's first democratic government set out to correct
the wrongs of the past, to provide reconstruction and
development and to forge a new path to a non-racial,
harmonious future. Rash promises were made, such as
the building of a million houses within the first year,
and pressing problems, such as the bloated and corrupt
public service, were ignored or put off. Many great
achievements have been made since 1994.
One of the world's most liberal constitutions
was enshrined, a representative Parliament was inaugurated,
the Truth and Reconciliation Commission began to tease
out the pain and suffering of the past, institutions
supporting democracy - such as the Human Rights Commission,
the Independent Electoral Commission, and the Public
Protector - were established and in virtually every
field of human endeavour, initiatives were taken to
improve the lot of the ordinary person. But as time
went on and the years began to pass, the enormity of
the problems became more and more ominous.
Perhaps top of these concerns is unemployment,
now estimated to be well above 30 percent and climbing.
With economic growth predicted to be little more than
0,5 percent next year, the rationalisation of industry
in the face of a more competitive, international environment,
the need to trim a massive public service, the dwindling
contribution of gold to the fiscus and the vulnerability
of the emerging, local economy to the global marketplace,
has forced the issue of unemployment to the top of the
national political agenda. The labour unions, which,
along with the SA Communist Party, make up the ruling,
government alliance, have been pushing the Mandela administration
to temper its economic policy of strict fiscal discipline
and debt reduction in the hope of creating more jobs.
A major conference, called the Presidential
Jobs Summit, will be held next week in a bid to address
the problem. But along with joblessness comes the attendent
social problems of crime, spousal and child abuse, corruption,
decay and poverty. With the bulk of the state budget
going on either salaries or debt repayments, there is
simply little left to meet the aspirations of the millions
of South Africans who suffered for so long and who continue
to suffer. Add to this formula, the devastating impact
of the recent turmoil on the world's stock markets.
Like many emerging economies, South Africa has
taken a severe battering in recent months. The Rand
has depreciated 28 percent against the US dollar since
January while 22 percent has been wiped off the value
of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Foreign investment,
which had soared from R4,3 billion in 1994 to R20,2
billion in 1997, has turned into a net capital outflow
this year. Amongst companies which have lost billions
of Rands in market capitalisation over the past few
months have been a group of black-owned companies which
now account for 10 percent of the JSE. The companies,
including New Africa Investments Limited - which is
headed by former African National Congress politician
Cyril Ramaphosa - are at the forefront of initiatives
to give black South Africans greater ownership of the
formerly white-dominated economy. The negative impact
of a profoundly bearish global marketplace has seen
interest rates in South Africa climb by 6 percent since
April - with mortgage bonds now pegged at close to
25
percent per annum - rising inflation of close to 9
percent and the lowest business confidence levels for
more than
10 years. Said finance minister Trevor Manuel recently, "There
are many emerging economies that have been dragged
into the vortex of this storm."
But while the impact of the crash has affected
the local economy deeply, hindered the reconstruction
after apartheid and damaged sorely-needed job creation,
the fundamentals of the South African economy remain
solid. We have a sound and well-capitalised banking
sector in which bad debts account for 3 percent of banks'
portfolios compared to approximately 30 percent in Japan.
The government has reduced its fiscal deficit from 10
percent in 1993/94 to a targeted 3,9 percent in this
fiscal year. Inflation has been brought down to single
digits and has remained there. Sound fiscal policies
and reforms in revenue collection and expenditure management
has meant cut-backs are not anticipated in health, education,
welfare payments or housing projects.
But further ghouls lurk in the shadows. Southern
Africa has the highest rate of HIV infection in the
world, random acts of terror and criminality are scaring
off investors and tourists, violence and civil war wage
freely on the subcontinent and three hundred years of
apartheid has greatly lowered the value of human life,
has diminished respect for individual or community rights
and has left income disparities between rich and poor
at among the most severe on the planet.
These are tough obstacles by any standards,
let alone for a government in office for the first time.
But doom and gloom has never been a South African attitude
and I, like many, am filled with optimism and hope.
In five years, real differences have been made. Millions
of people have received access to electricity and water
for the first time, free health care has been made available
to the most needy, hundreds of thousands of new homes
have been built and in virtually every field, from education
to minerals, from welfare to construction, new policies
are being framed and implemented.
Among the 125 Bills to be passed by Parliament
this year are a number which fundamentally change skewed
apartheid imbalances and put in place a process of social
and economic transformation.
In the labour field, the Employment Equity Bill
provides our country with the most comprehensive anti-discriminatory
legislation in the world and a practical framework to
redress past discrimination in the workplace. The Bill
prohibits discrimination against an employee in any
policy or practice on the grounds of race, gender, pregnancy,
marital status, family responsibility, social origin,
sexual orientation, age, disability, religion, HIV status,
belief, political opinion, culture or language. In the
face of growing discomfort over current crime levels,
legislation has been passed, or is being finalised,
dealing in particular with violent and organised crime.
New laws have been introduced dealing with bail, parole,
and minimum sentences targeting especially violent crime.
The Prevention of Organised Crime Bill, which
is currently before Parliament, makes provision for
drastic action against gangs.
The Domestic Violence Bill and Maintenance Bill
look at the special needs of women and children and
make it clear that violence and abuse aimed at women
and children will not be tolerated. The Bill acknowledges
that domestic violence is a serious crime against society,
that the majority of victims are women and that domestic
violence is a major obstacle to the constitutional rights
of gender equality and freedom from violence. The Bill
offers protection to any victim who is in a domestic
relationship, not only to those in marriage, and regards
the perpetrators of domestic violence as violent criminals.
The Maintenance Bill gives high priority to
the rights of children, their survival, protection and
development. Maintenance courts with real power will
be created,while the Bill allows for the automatic deductions
from the salaries of defaulting parents.
The National Water Bill, the National Environmental
Management Bill and the Marine Living Resources Bill
provide for fair access, conservation, sound management
and control of the nation's natural resources.
The Liquor Bill provides for the regulation
of an industry where research has shown that 90 percent
of the liquor being sold in South Africa is being sold
illegally. It regulates a product that is potentially
harmful and deals with the product itself and the wholesale
thereof. The intention is to bring illegal operators
into the licensing system to ensure that proper standards
are adhered to. The Bill, along with the Competition
Bill, encourages an economy that is more competitive,
less concentrated and where participation is more accessible
to people from a disadvantaged background.
In health, education, land affairs, labour,
justice, broadcasting and sport, key legislation has
been introduced providing the first few steps toward
the overhaul of a system described by the United Nations
as a crime against humanity. Little by little, the country
is being transformed from apartheid regime to a thriving
Constitutional Democracy. Our president-to-be, Thabo
Mbeki, has been arguing that developments here, as well
as on the continent at large, are the first signs of
an African Renaissance.
I want to close by looking ahead a little. Next
year, as you know, probably in May or early June, South
Africa has its second democratic election. Already,
the electioneering has begun. Opinion polls suggest
the ANC is a shoe-in for another comfortable majority,
possibly in the region of 60 percent of the electorate.
The National Party, which decided a couple of years
ago to pull out of the so-called Government of National
Unity with the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party, has
been hard hit by dwindling support. Polls indicate it
wil be lucky to secure 10 percent of the vote, leaving
the question of who will be the official opposition
wide open. Major contenders are the Democratic Party
and the newly-formed United Democratic Movement.
So you find us, ladies and gentlemen, at the
end of the first and last Mandela presidency. As we
look to the new century and to a new leadership to guide
us there, we have frowns on our brows but hope in our
hearts. The South African miracle is far from dead.
It is really only just beginning.
